View a screenreader-friendly version of this page.

state of the marketplace 2024 q2

December 2024

The main highlights of the most recent State of the Marketplace.

State of the Marketplace is a quarterly report, offering a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic landscape within the beverage industry. Want to learn more? Check out our State of the Marketplace article that walks through the benefits and impact.

State of the Marketplace  101 Article

the big picture of the market

In Q2 of 2024, GDP growth accelerated above expectations as prices eased thanks to strong consumer and government spending and inventory investment.

While this growth came from several sectors, personal consumption expenditure (PCE) increased 2.6%, down from 3.4% in the previous quarter (Q1).

KEY TERMS

GDP – value of all finished goods produced in the US

% Change – annualized rate vs prior quarter

Nominal – current price or unadjusted rate without taking into account inflation or other factors

Real – adjusted for inflation

Chart illustrating the % Change in the GDP (Annualized): 2023 Q2 (3.8% nominal, 2.1% real), 2023 Q3 (8.3% nominal, 4.9% real), 2023 Q4 (5.1% nominal, 3.4% real), 2024 Q1 (4.5% nominal, 1.4% real), 2024 Q2 (5.2% nominal, 2.8% real). •

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

the ups and downs of consumer ratings

Consumer Sentiment & Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) saw a month-over-month decline in June—partially attributed to a decline in the expectations index which measures consumer outlook on near-term business, income, & labor market conditions.

Two boxes with charts displaying Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI). In Consumer Sentiment, it is described as “sentiment is a leading indicator, telling us about future purchase intentions.” The Consumer Sentiment line chart shows the variation from 2018-2024, showing it has declined since the start of the year down 10 points since January. In Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI), it is defined as “CCI provides a POV on future developments around Household consumption and saving based on questions about personal finances and the macro environment.” The line chart from 2018-2024 reflects the concern about the future for consumers, contributing to a significant decline in early 2024.

Source: FRED – Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis The Conference Board; NBER

NARTD in retail

Total NARTD (non-alcoholic ready-to-drink) is up 2.1% in Retail Dollars, driven by strong growth in Energy, Sparkling Soft Drinks (SSD), and Value Added Dairy (VAD).

Chart reflecting the Retail Dollars and Retail Dollars % Change vs Last Year: Coffee (Retail $2.2B, -6%), Energy (Retail $9.7B, +3%), Juice (Retail $8.5B, +0%), Sports (Retail $5.0B, +0%), SSD (Retail $20.8B, +4%), Tea (Retail $2.9B, +0%), Value Added Dairy (Retail $3.5B, +2%), Flat Water (Retail $8.5B, +0%), Sparkling Water (Retail $1B, +6%), All Other Categories (Retail $4.6B, +5%).

Source: Nielsen Total US AMC YTD as of W/E 6/29/24. Share shown for manufacturers (does not include System Brands)

Channel develop-ments

Large Store & Club had the most growth of all the channels at 4.5%, while Small Store followed closely behind at 4.4% growth.

Line chart showing the NARTD Value % Growth by Channel. From Q2 2022 to Q2 2024, all channels (Mass, Value, Grocery & Convenience Retail) had slower growth, with Convenience Retail having the slowest growth (0.4%).

Source: NAOU NielsenIQ Database; NARTD Comp Set (Excludes Conventional Dairy and Bulk Water) W/E 6/29/24

the battle between eating out or at home

Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core Inflation saw rates advance slower than in Q1—food inflation has maintained a gap between Food-at-Home (FAH) and Food-Away-From-Home (FAFH), with consumers favoring food-at-home.

CPI & Core Inflation
Prices of fuel remained stable—helping counterbalance the rising costs of services, resulting in a slower overall increase in the CPI in June compared to previous periods

Food CPI
FAFH CPI continues to advance above 4% while FAH CPI advances at a pace below 1.2%

Two charts supporting the data of CPI & Core Inflation, and Food CPI—explained in the paragraph above.

Source: FRED – Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis

foodservice changes

In foodservice, both traffic and servings declined roughly 2% in Q2, while dollars saw a small gain, supported by food-away-from-home inflation.

Three line charts showing Q2 Foodservice Trends Over the Past 5 Years. Chart one illustrates Traffic (traffic in billions): 2019 (14.7 Billion), 2020 (11.8 Billion), 2021 (13.9 Billion), 2022 (13.2 Billion), 2023 (13.2 Billion), and 2024 (12.9 Billion, which was -2.3% vs a year ago and -12.4 vs 2019). The second chart shows Foodservice Dollars ($ in billions): 2019 ($112.9 Billion), 2020 ($86.2 Billion), 2021 ($113.5 Billion), 2022 ($116.7 Billion), 2023 ($122.4 Billion), and 2024 ($124.6 Billion, which was +1.8% vs a year ago and +10.3% vs 2019). The third chart shows Beverage Servings (servings in billions): 2019 (9.2 Billion), 2020 (7.1 Billion), 2021 (8.8 Billion), 2022 (8.4 Billion), 2023 (8.6 Billion), and 2024 (8.4 Billion, which was -2.1% vs a year ago and -8.6 vs 2019).

Source: NPD CREST for Commercial Restaurants Only (Excludes Retail Foodservice, Excludes Starbucks); Beverages excludes alcohol, tap water, hot tea, hot chocolate, smoothies, and shakes/malts/floats

Curious how it compares?

Compare this State of the Marketplace to last quarter’s!

State of the Marketplace  q1 2024 Article

By evaluating the trends of yesterday, we can see how they will impact today.

Want to see more?

Discover more through the lens in the articles below.